Wednesday, September 20, 2006
NY Times/CBS Poll: Dems over GOP 50%-35%, Bush at 37%
Republicans were beginning to gloat about their midterm election chances after a Gallup poll showed the preznit's approval rating "surging" to 44% and Dems and Republicans tied in the generic Congressional ballot preference.
Did they begin gloating too soon?
Tonight a new NY Times/CBS News poll shows the preznit's approval rating at 37% and Dems leading the generic Congressional ballot preference over Republicans 50%-35%. The poll also finds an electorate with the most intense disregard for the job Congress is doing since 1994, the year Dems were swept from office by a Republican tidal wave.
The Times article addresses the discrepancy between the Gallup poll results released yesterday and the Times/CBS poll results released today:
Rasmussen had Bush's approval rising from 40% yesterday to 41% today, trending upward after a few days of a downward slide. Rasmussen noted that Bush had gotten a bump right around the 9/11 anniversary (highest approval came on 9/14 when he hit 47% approval), but had very quickly returned to pre-9/11 anniversary levels.
The Times/CBS poll seems to say the same thing.
Bottom line: Charlie Cook's analysis from yesterday on MSNBC is probably spot on - the election dynamic remains the same - the GOP is in a shitload of trouble, but there are no guarantees that Dems are going to take back either or both houses of Congress.
But if NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds wants to go ahead and guarantee a GOP victory like he's Joe Namath at Super Bowl 3, more power to him.
Did they begin gloating too soon?
Tonight a new NY Times/CBS News poll shows the preznit's approval rating at 37% and Dems leading the generic Congressional ballot preference over Republicans 50%-35%. The poll also finds an electorate with the most intense disregard for the job Congress is doing since 1994, the year Dems were swept from office by a Republican tidal wave.
The Times article addresses the discrepancy between the Gallup poll results released yesterday and the Times/CBS poll results released today:
The New York Times/CBS News poll began last Friday, four days after the commemoration of the fifth anniversary of the Sept. 11 attacks, and two weeks after the White House began its offensive on security issues. A USA Today-Gallup Poll published on Tuesday reported that Mr. Bush’s job approval rating had jumped to 44 percent from 39 percent. The questioning in that poll went through Sunday; The Times and CBS completed the questioning for this poll on Tuesday night. Presidential addresses often produce shifts in public opinion that tend to be transitory.
Rasmussen had Bush's approval rising from 40% yesterday to 41% today, trending upward after a few days of a downward slide. Rasmussen noted that Bush had gotten a bump right around the 9/11 anniversary (highest approval came on 9/14 when he hit 47% approval), but had very quickly returned to pre-9/11 anniversary levels.
The Times/CBS poll seems to say the same thing.
Bottom line: Charlie Cook's analysis from yesterday on MSNBC is probably spot on - the election dynamic remains the same - the GOP is in a shitload of trouble, but there are no guarantees that Dems are going to take back either or both houses of Congress.
But if NRCC chairman Tom Reynolds wants to go ahead and guarantee a GOP victory like he's Joe Namath at Super Bowl 3, more power to him.
