Wednesday, January 18, 2006

Tom Delay's Got Real Reelection Problems

Uh, oh - the Hammer better start turning things around in his district soon or he's toast. From Hotlineblog:

A Univ. of Houston Center for Public Policy/Rice Univ. poll shows the extent to which ex-Maj Leader Tom DeLay's support has eroded. While ex-Rep. Nick Lampson (D) only holds 30% of the vote to DeLay's 22%, looking inside the numbers reveals some serious trouble ahead for DeLay. With low support among indies, and not surprisingly Dems, DeLay must rely on his GOP base to carry him to re-election. But with only 39% of GOPers supporting him in a general, DeLay is going to have a hard time battling Lampson for those 38% undecideds, especially since Lampson has 63% of Dems in his corner.

Also, keep in mind that in this poll, white voters are overrepresented, and more likely to be GOP, making the poll slightly more GOP-heavy than the district.

If this poll is overrepresenting Republicans and Delay can only garner 22% support overall and 39% from GOP voters, he's in real trouble.

Too bad about that.

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