Tuesday, April 25, 2006

Some Pretty Bleak Democracy Corps Numbers For The GOP

Taegan Goddard at Political Wire runs through the latest poll results from Democracy Corps and reports this:

In contests where a Democratic incumbent is running for re-election (199 House seats in this database), the Democratic candidates enjoy a 26-point advantage and claim a strong majority of the votes (57 to 31 percent)

In open seats with no incumbent running in this cycle (20 House seats), the Democratic advantage is even higher -- a remarkable 63 to 28 percent

Most importantly, in races where a Republican incumbent is running for re-election (217 House seats), the Republican candidate leads by just 4 points (42 to 46 percent) and fails to claim majority support -- a sharp contrast from the strong position of Democratic incumbents.

Conventional wisdom remains that Dems will almost certainly make big gains in both the House and Senate but the jury is still out on whether they can capture either or both houses of Congress.

There is a lot of time between now and November and with the help of Karl Rove's bag of dirty tricks and the Diebold Corporation, I suppose Republicans could hold onto solid majorities in the House and Senate.

But when you look at those Democracy Corps numbers, you'd have to say that both Karl Rove and Diebold have got their work cut out for them in the House.

Those are some pretty scary numbers if you're a GOP member standing for re-election.

I remember reading something about how paper trails were gonna be required by 06. They could delay that, of course.
The key is for Dems to win back the state houses. It's harder to cheat, even in national elections, when the opposite party runs the state government.
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