Saturday, May 20, 2006
Two Pieces Of Bad News For GOP
First, the nonpartisan Cook Report's Competitive House Race chart was updated yesterday. The Report now lists 10 Democratic seats as "Lean Democratic" or "Toss-Up" while 36 Republican seats are listed either "Lean Republican" or "Toss-Up." Last week, the Cook Report had listed 11 Democratic seats in the "Lean" or "Toss-Up" categories and 24 Republican seats in the "Lean" or "Toss-Up" categories. Here's the trend:
Not a good trend line if you're a Republican. The Cook Report's analysis is behind a subscription wall so I can't tell you exactly why the Cook Report revised its Competitive House Race chart so drastically, but this Washington Post article from today might provide some clues:
In the Post article, Amy Walters of the Cook Report notes that the midterm elections are increasingly becoming nationalized and
The Cook Report is not the only political newsletter to see the midterm elections trending heavily away from the GOP (which is not quite the same thing as trending toward Democrats.) Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report has 42 Republican House districts, including Thelma Drake's, on his competitive list. Last September, Rothenberg listed only 26 districts as "competitive" and Drake's wasn't listed.
It's still early and a lot can change for the better before November. But the truth is, a lot can change for the worse before November too. Perhaps American casulaties in Iraq will subside and the sectarian violence will decrease, but so far both remain fairly constant over the long haul. Since December 15, 2005, the day after general elections were held in Iraq, two American military personnel a day are dying on average. The sectarian violence wanes and ebbs as well, but it never goes away. Reuters says today hundreds of people are being killed every month just in Baghdad and tens of thousands have fled their homes in fear since the Golden Mosque was bombed in February. The war doesn't seem to be getting better any time soon. And maybe gas prices will subside a bit before November, but with both summer driving season and hurricane season around the corner, I wouldn't bank on significantly lower gas prices any time soon.
No, the trends are bad if you're a Republican member of the House running for re-election or a GOP candidate running for election. Republicans are trying to use wedge issues like gay marriage bans and "English-Only" initiatives to lure the base to the polls this November. And that may work to a small degree. But I just don't think these wedge issues are trumping the war, the economy, and the energy crisis this time around.
May 10, 2005: Dems - 14 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-Up
May 27, 2005: Dems - 14 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-Up
June 17, 2005: Dems - 13 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-Up
July 25, 2005: Dems - 14 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-UP
August 12, 2005: Dems - 14 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-Up
September 1, 2005: Dems - 14 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-Up
September 15, 2005: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-UP; GOP - 16 Lean/Toss-Up
October 7, 2005: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 17 Lean/Toss-Up
October 21, 2005: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 17 Lean/Toss-Up
November 7, 2005: Dems - 12 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 17 Lean/Toss-Up
November 11, 2005: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-Up
November 18, 2005: Dems - 10 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 17 Lean/Toss-Up
December 2, 2005: Dems - 10 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-Up
January 13, 2006: Dems - 10 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 18 Lean/Toss-Up
February 3, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 21 Lean/Toss-Up
February 24, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 21 Lean/Toss-Up
March 10, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 21 Lean/Toss-Up
March 17, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 24 Lean/Toss-Up
March 24, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 24 Lean/Toss-Up
March 31, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 25 Lean/Toss-Up
April 7, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 24 Lean/Toss-Up
April 14, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 24 Lean/Toss-Up
April 21, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 24 Lean/Toss-Up
April 28, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 24 Lean/Toss-Up
May 12, 2006: Dems - 11 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 24 Lean/Toss-Up
May 19, 2006: Dems - 10 Lean/Toss-Up; GOP - 36 Lean/Toss-Up
Not a good trend line if you're a Republican. The Cook Report's analysis is behind a subscription wall so I can't tell you exactly why the Cook Report revised its Competitive House Race chart so drastically, but this Washington Post article from today might provide some clues:
VIRGINIA BEACH, May 19 -- When some of the country's top political handicappers drew up their charts of vulnerable House incumbents at the beginning of this year, Rep. Thelma D. Drake (R-Va.) was not among them. Now she is.
President Bush carried her district with 58 percent of the vote in 2004, but strategists say his travails are part of the reason the freshman lawmaker now has a fight on her hands. He swooped into town briefly Friday for a closed-door fundraiser for Drake but made no public appearances.
Drake, who won with ease two years ago, is not alone. With approval ratings for Bush and congressional Republicans at a low ebb, GOP strategists see signs of weakness where they least expected it -- including a conservative, military-dominated suburb such as Virginia Beach -- and fear that their problems could grow worse unless the national mood brightens.
Some veterans of the 1994 GOP takeover of Congress see worrisome parallels between then and now, in the way once-safe districts are turning into potential problems. Incumbents' poll numbers have softened. Margins against their Democratic opponents have narrowed. Republican voters appear disenchanted. The Bush effect now amounts to a drag of five percentage points or more in many districts.
The changes don't guarantee a Democratic takeover by any means, but they are creating an increasingly asymmetrical battlefield for the fall elections: The number of vulnerable Democratic districts has remained relatively constant while the number of potentially competitive Republican districts continues to climb.
In the Post article, Amy Walters of the Cook Report notes that the midterm elections are increasingly becoming nationalized and
"In a nationalized election, the typical laws of gravity get thrown out the window. Under-funded candidates beat better-funded candidates, and entrenched incumbents lose to first-time challengers."
The Cook Report is not the only political newsletter to see the midterm elections trending heavily away from the GOP (which is not quite the same thing as trending toward Democrats.) Stu Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report has 42 Republican House districts, including Thelma Drake's, on his competitive list. Last September, Rothenberg listed only 26 districts as "competitive" and Drake's wasn't listed.
It's still early and a lot can change for the better before November. But the truth is, a lot can change for the worse before November too. Perhaps American casulaties in Iraq will subside and the sectarian violence will decrease, but so far both remain fairly constant over the long haul. Since December 15, 2005, the day after general elections were held in Iraq, two American military personnel a day are dying on average. The sectarian violence wanes and ebbs as well, but it never goes away. Reuters says today hundreds of people are being killed every month just in Baghdad and tens of thousands have fled their homes in fear since the Golden Mosque was bombed in February. The war doesn't seem to be getting better any time soon. And maybe gas prices will subside a bit before November, but with both summer driving season and hurricane season around the corner, I wouldn't bank on significantly lower gas prices any time soon.
No, the trends are bad if you're a Republican member of the House running for re-election or a GOP candidate running for election. Republicans are trying to use wedge issues like gay marriage bans and "English-Only" initiatives to lure the base to the polls this November. And that may work to a small degree. But I just don't think these wedge issues are trumping the war, the economy, and the energy crisis this time around.
