Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Bush 'Plateau"

From Gallup:

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll finds 37% of Americans approving of the way Bush is handling his job as president and 59% disapproving. Despite many extraordinary events dominating the news over the past weeks -- including the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon and Bush's high-visibility trip to Europe -- this slight drop from the 40% approval rating measured earlier in the month is not statistically significant and falls within the margin of error between the two surveys. The current 37% rating is similar to his average approval rating of 37% for all of June.

Bush's job approval rating had been showing a slow, gradual improvement from his administration's low point of 31% in early May, but seems to have reached a plateau in the 37% to 40% range since mid-June. Bush's ratings were higher in January and early February, averaging 42%.

Here's what I want to know. How come when Bush goes up 3 percentage points, it's statistically significant (e.g., when he went from 37% approval in June to 40% approval in early July) but when he falls 3 percentage points (e.g., when he went from 40% approval in early July to 37% in late July) it's statistically insignificant?

It must be wonderful to have an entire press and polling corps ready to provide excuses for you.

Regardless of how Gallup spins this poll, however, the reality is Bush is an unpopular preznit who has enjoyed approval ratings below 50% for a very, very long time now. Hell, his disapproval ratings have been hovering in the 60% range for almost as long as his approval ratings have been under 50%. Bush is not just an unpopular preznit, he is one of the most unpopular presidents of all time.

I really have problems in referencing US news sources.
The bad part is, I can't even effectively monitor the crap, for my own understanding, because it is so lacking.
Do Dem administrations recieve the same skewed reporting?
By which I mean, are the media merely sycophantic regardless of who is in the White House?
The Shrub could give a rat's ass about polls. He is running the show as he sees fit and the rest of us be damned.

Now, the Repubes seeking re-election..thats a whole different ball of bullshit..
Let's hope this unpopularity manifests itself at the polls in numbers large enough to overcome the voting machines.

It's incredible what this country has become.
Mike Lupica, a sportswriter for the NY Daily News, says the news media covers politics like a weather vane - whichever way the wind is blowing, that's how they cover it. For most of this administration, the wind has been blowing Bush's way. he gets the benefit of the doubt nearly all the time. It's not his fault (the recession, budget deficit, Katrina aftermath, 9/11 attacks), he'd never lie (Iraq war, CIA leak case), he'd never break the law (domestic spying, Gitmo, datamining, signing statements). Now that his poll numbers are in the dumper and have been for a long time, he doesn't get the same benefit of the doubt he usta - but vestiges of it remain. As Media Matters constantly points out, the news media are scared to seem too "liberal" so they're very susceptible to wingnut manipulation.

dusty, you're right about Bush - he's thinking about his "legacy" (hahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahaha) and you're right about the other Repubs - they're thinking about polls and re-election and Dieboding the whole thing. Which is what scares me. A lot, actually.

I hope you're right about the numbers beating the voting machines, nyc educator. I dunno. Markos at Daily Kos seems to think from the primary numbers that this sin't going to be a watershed year at all because Dems don't stand for anything. Markos has an agenda he's pursuing, of course (Beltway Dems suck), so I don't know whether to take him at face value on that.
We'll have to see what happens up the road. However, as usual, the dems are kind of a coalition, while the GOP is a monolith.

It's tough to speak in one voice when you're got guys like Lieberman out there.
There are quite a few Dems who can undercut party discipline like Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu, Mark Pryor, even Bill Nelson in Florida. But I can live w/ them because they represent red or reddish states and, except for Nelson, usually vote the right way on most issues. Lieberman, on the other hand, represents a very blue state, abd while he votes the right way on most social issues, he's a corporate whore on economic issues and neo-con on the war. Plus he's sanctimonious and loves to lecture.

Yeah, it would be nice to send him into retirement.
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