reality-based educator

If you think about political donations as a kind of futures market, you can see that many campaign donors have decided the era of GOP political dominance is over for at least the short term:

Senate Democrats' financial advantage over Republicans is continuing 3 1/2 months before voters determine which party will control the Senate for the rest of President Bush's term.

At the end of June, Senate Democrats had nearly twice as much cash on hand as their Republican counterparts, according to data submitted to the Federal Election Commission yesterday.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raised $8.8 million in June and had $38 million in the bank. The National Republican Senatorial Committee raised $4.8 million and had $19.8 million in the bank.

The trend is mirrored on the House side -- though the Democratic edge is less pronounced. At the end of June, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $31.9 million, compared with the National Republican Congressional Committee's $26.5 million.

House Democrats are planning to spend their enlarged war chest on an aggressive television campaign this fall in about two dozen congressional districts, especially in the Northeast and Midwest, the Associated Press reported yesterday. They have already reserved more than $30 million worth of TV time.

Just a week ago, The Hill ran an article entitled "House GOP Senses Shift In Political Winds"in which members of the House GOP leadership claimed they had become much more optimistic about their chances in the November midterms because a) things were turning around politically for them, especially after the Zarqawi killing and the preznit's visit to Iraq and b) their proven fundraising prowess would help them bury Democrats financially.

How things do change.

Iraq is such a bloodbath that the Washington Post reported yesterday that Republicans no longer feel good about issuing positive reports about the ongoing "progress" in the country. In fact, GOP Representative Gil Gutknecht, a staunch war supporter who urged his colleagues in the House just last month during the Iraq war debate not to go "wobbly" in their support for the war, came back from a visit to Iraq convinced the war is going badly and the U.S. needs to engage in a partial withdrawl to let the Iraqis know we mean business about getting out. And now we find out that even the Grand Old Party's vaunted fundraising prowess is letting them down and they won't have the usual overwhelming money advantage over Dems in the Fall.

Gee, I'm almost tempted to say that these midterm elections might be a fair fight between the parties, but I realize that Karl Rove and Kenny Boy Mehlman still have Diebold and election irregularities to fall back on.