Monday, October 23, 2006

Midterm Update

A new Gallup poll shows Dems with a 13 point lead on the generic ballot. That spread matches the lead the GOP enjoyed over Dems in 1994 when Democrats were swept from power by a Republican tidal wave.

CQPolitics changed ratings on 14 congressional races last week (13 House races/1 Senate race). The changes "weighed heavily in the favor of the Democrats." For the first time this election cycle, Democrats are rated as having the edge in more House districts than Republicans. Neither party has sewed up the 219 seats needed for a majority, but all 19 seats rated as toss-ups by CQPolitics are Republican-held seats.

National Journal's Chuck Todd writes that Democrats look poised to win the 15 seats they need to retake power in the House and could possibly win a lot more.

A new Washington Post/ABC News poll finds that independents are supporting Democratic candidates over Republican candidates 59%-31%. Bush's approval rating stands at 37% in the poll, down from 39% two weeks ago and 42% from September. Dems lead in the generic ballot for the Congress 54%-41%.

An interesting side note: only 25% of those surveyed in the Post/ABC News poll say they are getting ahead in the economy. Another 25% say they have fallen behind, 50% say they are treading water and are just able to maintain their standard of living. In the survey, Republicans enjoy the support of only those who say they are getting ahead - and that would only be 25% of the people polled. No wonder Bush and the Grand Old Pervert party aren't enjoying the fruits of Dow 12,000+. A large majority of Americans aren't benefiting from it.

Cook Political Report/RT Strategies Poll has Bush at 37% approval, down 4 points in the last two weeks. Dems enjoy a 49%-37% lead over Republicans in the Registered Voter model (RV) for the generic congressional ballot. In the Likely Voter model (LV) Dems lead 57%-35%.

With two weeks to go, it looks like Republicans haven't made any inroads into the Dem leads at either the generic ballot level or the state or district levels.

I guess the plan must be to "cheat like a motherfucker" this November.

I guess the plan must be to "cheat like a motherfucker" this November.

Indeed! But...will we be able to detect it? That's the question.

Regarding ABC...a day late and a dollar short. They only figured this out now?
No aren't I pleased to see some economy at last :) And just when I was seeing the dominant issue being your President. One in the same I guess.
Bush seems as smug about this election as he did regarding Florida in 2000.

"We will win Florida, right it down. (chuckle)"


Do you know where I can get polling numbers on individual House races, specifically ones that may not even be close?
PT, check Survey USA's site. They may have run polls in districts that are not considered competitive, depending on whether anyone hired them or not. National Journal/Hotline Blog has the top 60 races listed and the Cook Report has a good number listed as well, but I think they are only listing "competitive" races. Otherwise, I think you have to pay one of the professional prognosticators, like Charlie Cook or Stu Rothenberg, for the polling data for ALL the races.

BTW, which district race were you looking for. If it's your old district in CA (Buck McKeon, right?), I think it's considered a Likely Republican seat, though it has shifted from Safe Republican simply because the environment is so negative nationally for the GOP.

carltedge - I think the preznit would like to get more attention onto the economy now that the the Dow is over 12000, but I don't think he realizes that it seems to only be helping the top 25% (and therefore won't be helping his party's chances too much in two weeks.)

kvatch, you're right, of course. But at least they're covering it now. It gives me hope for this year. Let's keep our fingers crossed that the fraud is kept to a minimum and if and when it comes, it gets sorted out by the news media.
It's always worth remarking that you guys ignore the outright corruption of the voting process in many areas.

Brooklyn, for instance. Fortunately, a few of the miscreants, like Clarence Norman, are landing in jail as a result of a long overdue crackdown on the Democratic party machine that runs this borough of 2.5 million.

That's more people than live in quite a few states.

In the coming election, a woman who lied about graduating from college will undoubtedly win Brooklyn's 11th Congressional district, the district created for Shirley Chisholm, who would cringe over her political descendent.
Yep, CA 25: Buck McKeon. He outspent his competition by about 50 to 1 last election and won the seat with a two to one margin.

Thanks for the info.
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