Sunday, October 22, 2006

Poll Updates

New Jersey Democratic Senator Bob Menendez is starting to look like he's going to hold off his GOP challenger, Tom Kean Jr. A new Monmouth University poll has Menendez leading Kean 48%-39%. The previous Monmouth University poll had Kean with a six point lead. And the best news for Dems: Menendez's voters are more committed to him than Kean's supporters are for him.

If Menendez can hold onto this seat, Democrats only need to take 6 Senate races in order to win back control of the Senate. While that's not an easy task, it certainly is a lot easier than having to win seven out of a possible 8 vulnerable GOP seats if Menendez hands the New Jersey seat to the GOP.

And the surprise news of the day: an independent poll has given Paul Hodes a 48%-39% lead over Representative Charlie Bass (R-New Hampshire.) Best news for Dems in this poll: Bass' unfavorable rating (40%) is nearly as high as his favorable rating (43%.)

I'm still dubious about this Bass poll but it's possible the negative environment for the GOP is taking a toll on Bass up in New Hampshire. Still, I think the Bass seat is rated a fairly long shot for a Dem pick-up.

UPDATE: Teagan Goddard notes that CQPolitics moved Bass' seat from Likely Republican to Lean Republican last week.

Given the way the poll numbers have been moving in Jersey over the last month (Menendez has been ahead in all but one poll and trending up while Kean is trending down), at what point does the NRSC and the RNC pull out of New Jersey completely. In order for Republicans to truly compete with Dems in the state, they have to air ads in both the New York and Philly markets. I read somewhere that the GOP would have to throw about $7 million into the state over the last two weeks to really make the race competitive. With Republicans playing defense in so many other races and needing a fast infusion of cash in Virginia, Missouri and Tennessee, I bet they take a pass on the Jersey race real soon.

I'm sort of hoping that the Republicans keep up the 'dirty tricks' campaign they've been running. I think that it's hurting them more than helping.
Menendez and Kean both suck. I wouldn't vote for either of them.
Elizabeth, for me at this point in the election cycle, it's about getting subpoena power out of the GOP's hands and into the hands of some lawmakers who will actually exert some oversight on this administration. So, while Menendez may not be the best candidate, I hope he wins because it helps Dems take the power out awat from Cheney, Mitch McConnell, and the rest.
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