Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Really Bad News For The GOP

Charlie Cook of The Cook Report writes in his National Journal column today that these midterm elections could be a once in a generation thing and Republicans could lose 25, 30, or 35 seats in the House.

Jim VandeHei wrote in the Washington Post that Dems see a chance to take 40 or more seats in the House and are going to borrow $10 million dollars to expand their advertising into second and third tier House races.

The WSJ/NBC News poll released tonight shows the Republican Congress with a 16% approval rating and Preznit Bush with a 38% approval rating (down 1 point from two weeks ago.) In addition, 52% of those surveyed say they want Dems to take control of the Congress after the midterms while only 37% say they want the GOP to retain control. In the last 12 years this question has been asked in the WSJ/NBC News poll, neither party has garnered over 50% on the question of which party voters would like to see in power in the Congress. Just 32% of those surveyed see the Republican party in a postive light while 49% see Republicans negatively (Dems are viewed positively by 37%, unfavorably by 35%.)

Constituent Dynamics, an independent polling operation, released six new polls tonight that show New York may become "Bluer" after November 7th. All four New York races look like they will be Democratic pick-ups on November 7th:

IL-8: Melissa Bean (D) leads David McSweeney (R), 47% to 44%
IL-10: Mark Kirk (R) leads Dan Seals (D), 46% to 44%
NY-19: John Hall (D) leads Sue Kelly (R), 49% to 40%
NY-20: Kristen Gillibrand (D) leads John McSweeney (R), 54% to 41%
NY-25: Dan Maffei (D) leads James Walsh (R), 51% to 43%
NY-29: Eric Massa (D) leads Randy Kuhl (R), 52% to 40%

Finally, the Post's Chris Cilliza writes that Dems have an "anger advantage" this year that could could undo some vaunted GOP election advantages like ground operation and money. Cilliza notes that a recent Pew Poll shows this:

In 2002, 40 percent of Democrats said they were enthusiastic about voting in the fall while 44 percent of Republicans said the same thing. Four years later, 51 percent of Democrats said they were enthused while just 33 percent of Republicans said the same.

The Fix is no mathematician, but that's an 11-point increase in Democratic enthusiasm and a corresponding 11-point decrease in Republican enthusiasm -- a 22-point net swing.

Nearly six-in-ten Democratic voters (59 percent) and five-in-ten Republican voters (48 percent) told Pew that they had given a lot of thought to this year's election. Four years ago 46 percent of Democrats and 47 percent of Republicans said the same thing. At this time in 1994 -- less than a month before Republicans swept Democrats from their House and Senate majorities -- 50 percent of Republicans said they had given a lot of thought to the election while just 40 percent of Democrats said the same.

"These indications of Democratic engagement suggest that the turnout advantage the GOP has enjoyed in recent elections may not hold this November," reads a summary of the Pew poll's findings.

So while Republicans are touting their excellent GOTV machine and the shitloads of advertising money they've got to use these last two-and-a-half weeks, the Pew Poll perhaps suggests that the anger many are feeling toward both the Bush administration and the Republican-led Congress could just make those GOP advantages moot.

To the everlasting chagrin of George Bush, Karl Rove, Ken Mehlman and Mark Halperin.

We'll know soon enough. The election is just 20 days away and all the news is bad for Republicans. Whatever "October/November Surprise" Rove and Mehlman have got cooked up better be pretty good.

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