reality-based educator

Taegan Goddard writes at Political Wire that Survey USA will release polls in four districts that will show considerable movement away from the Republican incumbent toward the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing between 9 and 13 points. In addition, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters toward Dems by between 4 and 11 points.

Goddard explains the poll results like this:

1. Republicans are becoming less likely to vote, and Democrats are becoming more likely to vote;
2. Some "weak Republicans" are now identifying themselves as Independent, while some left-leaning Independents are now identifying themselves as Democrats.

While it's not yet possible to determine which of the two explanations is correct, SurveyUSA concludes that national trends are very much driving these local races.

There are no guarantees, of course, but it really is starting to look like a "wave year" for Dems. The Cook Report, the Rothenberg Report, CQPolitics and Hotline all are seeing the same "wave movement" toward Dems at the state and district levels. I suspect the only way Repubs can save this thing on election day is to cheat early and cheat often.

Which I'm sure is part of the Rovian gameplan. When all else fails (e.g., the national security memes/cultural wedge issues/anti-tax messages), cheat like a motherfucker and dare the media to call you on it.