Sunday, November 05, 2006
Gallup Poll Out Showing Dems With a 7 Point Lead In Generic Ballot, Same As Republicans Had In 1994
From USA Today:
A 7 point generic ballot is probably about right. The double digit leads TIME, NEWSWEEK and previous Gallup polls gave Dems were way to high and the Pew Poll showing Dems with a 4 point lead seems a little too small.
The races are tightening. While Dems still have a good-sized lead, Republicans are starting to come home to the party and Democrats must be sure to take NOTHING for granted on Tuesday. There is a little doubt in my mind that Republicans can still hold onto power in both chambers if Dems do not fight tooth and nail for every vote in the next 48 hours.
WASHINGTON — A national USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds remarkable parallels between the congressional elections Tuesday and the watershed elections in 1994 that swept Republicans into control of the House and Senate.
•Then, likely voters by 51%-44% favored Republican congressional candidates. Now, voters by 51%-44% favor Democratic ones.
•Then, 52% said they were paying "quite a lot" of attention to the elections, the highest since the Gallup Poll began asking the question in 1958. Now, 50% say they are paying "quite a lot" of attention, the second-highest.
•Then, disapproval of Congress was at 66%. Now, disapproval of Congress is at 70%.
"Based on history, a 7-point lead among likely voters still suggest Democrats will take enough votes to win a majority of seats in the House," says Frank Newport, editor-in-chief of the Gallup Poll. What gives some analysts pause, however, is the sophisticated redistricting over the past decade that has made most congressional districts less competitive.
What's more, President Bush's last-ditch push for votes and Sen. John Kerry's comments that seemed to denigrate the education level of U.S. forces in Iraq have helped energize GOP voters. A Democratic advantage of 23 percentage points a month ago and 13 points two weeks ago is now down to 7.
A 7 point generic ballot is probably about right. The double digit leads TIME, NEWSWEEK and previous Gallup polls gave Dems were way to high and the Pew Poll showing Dems with a 4 point lead seems a little too small.
The races are tightening. While Dems still have a good-sized lead, Republicans are starting to come home to the party and Democrats must be sure to take NOTHING for granted on Tuesday. There is a little doubt in my mind that Republicans can still hold onto power in both chambers if Dems do not fight tooth and nail for every vote in the next 48 hours.
Comments:
<< Home
I'm surprised you haven't mentioned the Sadaam verdict, conveniently trotted out yesterday. Tony Snow says it's just a coincidence, they had nothing to do with it, and they're still looking for the BLTs.
The saddam verdict is meaningless with respect to Tuesday's vote.
No one is going to the polls to vote for Republican candidates because one vicious dictator is facing the death penalty.
On the other hand, it's deeply offensive the Ramsay Clark is part of saddam's defense team. I'm sure Clark and his fellow Defeatocrats really did want to seat an OJ jury that would acquit the bastard.
Fortunately, that didn't happen. But the conviction won't sway anyone either way because it isn't controversial in any way.
No outrage, no celebration, no nothing.
No one is going to the polls to vote for Republican candidates because one vicious dictator is facing the death penalty.
On the other hand, it's deeply offensive the Ramsay Clark is part of saddam's defense team. I'm sure Clark and his fellow Defeatocrats really did want to seat an OJ jury that would acquit the bastard.
Fortunately, that didn't happen. But the conviction won't sway anyone either way because it isn't controversial in any way.
No outrage, no celebration, no nothing.
I sense that the administration pushed the Iraqis to release the verdict yesterday before our election so they could point to it and say "Look - progress." Funny thing is, the text of the verdict won't be ready to be released until Thursday (i.e., the how and why he's guilty.) Seems suspiciously sped up to provide some good news out of Iraq (plus it gave them a chance to institute a curfew for a few days and tamp down the really bad violence too.) Perhaps I'm in tinfoil hate territory here, but this administration never does anything that isn't political and I have a difficult time believing this wasn't as well.
Krugman wrote if you believe the verdict is coincidental he had a bridge plot to sell you. There's no way that's a coincidence, though I hope it doesn't sway the vote.
# posted by 
: 4:49 PM
: 4:49 PM
Given all the voter suppression stories and Diebold stories out tonight, maybe the vote is already in the bag for the GOP even without the Saddam verdict.
reality,
Given all the voter suppression stories and the Diebold tales, why don't we just cancel the elections and stick with the guys we've got till 2008?
That seems to be what you're angling for.
Given all the voter suppression stories and the Diebold tales, why don't we just cancel the elections and stick with the guys we've got till 2008?
That seems to be what you're angling for.
Why don't you get your guys to stop w/ the voter suppression techniques?
My favorite GOP voter suppression operation was from back in the Christie Whitman days in NJ when GOP strategist Ed Rollins paid black people NOT to vote. He bragged about how the operation cost half a million dollars and helped win an election.
But voter suppression by the GOP doesn't happen, right?
My favorite GOP voter suppression operation was from back in the Christie Whitman days in NJ when GOP strategist Ed Rollins paid black people NOT to vote. He bragged about how the operation cost half a million dollars and helped win an election.
But voter suppression by the GOP doesn't happen, right?
reality, you seem to think Democrats don't have their own bag of tricks.
"Vote early and often" is a well known line in Democratic circles. As is voting by tombstones.
A few days from now we'll be reading about what Dems did to nail some extra votes.
If there's one thing you can be sure of, it's the unwillingness of the main stream press to blast Dems for voting misbehavior.
In other words, it's not remarkable that 100% of stories about voting schemes implicate Republicans. However, the world doesn't work in that lopsided that way.
"Vote early and often" is a well known line in Democratic circles. As is voting by tombstones.
A few days from now we'll be reading about what Dems did to nail some extra votes.
If there's one thing you can be sure of, it's the unwillingness of the main stream press to blast Dems for voting misbehavior.
In other words, it's not remarkable that 100% of stories about voting schemes implicate Republicans. However, the world doesn't work in that lopsided that way.
Former GOP Congressman Joe Scarborough asked a simple question on MSNBC tonight - Why don't Republicans want paper trails in electronic voting machines? And the answer is pretty simple. It's harder to cheat when you have paper trails.
Post a Comment
<< Home
