Friday, February 02, 2007

Situation In Iraq Is Worse Than A Civil War

So says the National Intelligence Estimate just released:

The Intelligence Community judges that the term “civil war” does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq, which includes extensive Shia-on-Shia violence, al-Qa’ida and Sunni insurgent attacks on Coalition forces, and widespread criminally motivated violence. Nonetheless, the term “civil war” accurately describes key elements of the Iraqi conflict, including the hardening of ethno-sectarian identities, a sea change in the character of the violence, ethno-sectarian mobilization, and population displacements.

Geez, the intelligence community says the phrase "civil war" is too rosy and optimistic for what's actually happening in Iraq. Perhaps "complete carnage" or "hellish nightmare" would better describe the complexity and intensity of the violence?

One thing I do know - the next time some member of the administration or some fucking Keyboard Kommando wingnut fighting the war from his NRO cubicle says Iraq is not in the midst of a civil war or things are actually getting better, we can send them to the Bush government's own NIE to set them straight.

Although given the state of denial over the war coming from both the administration and the few apologists/supporters it still has left on the outside, even that may not set them straight. Remember, Dick Cheney thinks the administration has enjoyed "enormous success" so far in Iraq - so much so that he'd like to expand the opportunity to Iran!

And given the track record of the administration so far in Afghanistan and Iraq, we can be sure an air attack and/or invasion of Iran will also be a Chenyesque "enormous success."

UPDATE: As noted over on TPMuckraker, as bad as the key judgments from the NIE that were just released are, they're probably nowhere near as grim as the part that remains classified.

One last thing: isn't it ironic how this NIE - so grim and pessimistic about the chances for peace and stability in Iraq in the forseeable future - didn't see release before Bush's vaunted "Iraq surge" speech and SOTU speech back in January?

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